By Adiba Hasan

IRCC released the 2024-2026 Immigration Levels Plan in November 2023, setting its PR admissions target at 485,000 in 2024 before levelling at 500,000 for 2025 and 2026. The latest data on the ICC’s Immigration Dashboard indicates that in January and February 2024, IRCC managed to admit 18% of its immigration target, which represents a 3% decline from the same period in 2023.

Increases in immigration following the pandemic have sparked intense debates about the impact of higher levels on a variety of issues such as housing and healthcare. In response, the government seems to be attempting to strike a balance by introducing “soft caps” for immigration groups such as temporary workers and international students, which were previously not subject to limits. While these new limits on temporary residents are established, as well as a levelling off of PR admissions at 500,000 in 2025 and 2026, the precise impact on issues such as housing and healthcare remains to be seen.

The chart below illustrates that while Canada saw a 20% increase in new citizens in the first two months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, permanent resident (PR) admissions saw a 14% decrease over the same period.

Fewer Invitations to Apply (ITAs) and Higher CRS Scores

IRCC issues an Invitation to Apply (ITA) after a candidate successfully submits their PR application through the Express Entry system. Express Entry employs a Comprehensive Ranking System, a point-based system that gives candidates a score of 1,200 points based on their age, education, language proficiency, and work experience among other criteria. IRCC reviews and selects candidates that fit specific economic immigration programs, such as Federal Skilled Workers, Federal Skilled Trades, Canadian Experience Class, and Provincial Nominee Programs.

According to earlier draws in the Express Entry pool, scores for General applications that received an ITA were between 400-500 points, with the lowest CRS score requiring 75 points in post-pandemic 2021. However, the bar was raised in 2024, with successful applicants needing a score of above 500 points to receive an ITA, reflecting one of the many ways the government is trying to tighten immigration selection standards.

Further suggesting a more selective approach to immigration through Express Entry, there’s been a notable decrease of 21% of ITAs issued in 2024. Compared to the first four months of 2023, where IRCC issued 41,059 ITAs, the total ITA issued in 2024 is 32,395.

Navigating the Backlog

IRCC’s backlog tracker indicates that 58% of applications are being processed within the established standard time, with the remaining 42% exceeding service standards.

The graph below illustrates the fluctuations of applications in backlogs. Between June to December 2023, the citizenship backlog decreased by 6% whereas PR application backlogs decreased by 3%. Notably, there was a reduction of 36,800 citizenship applications between June to December 2023, and PR applications decreased by 1,000 while the backlog rate decreased slowly. By contrast, the backlog for temporary resident visas (including study and work permits; TRV) increased by 14% in 2023, even though total application numbers decreased from 1,300,000 in July 2023 to 1,256,600 in December 2023.

The graph below indicates a steady decrease in the percentage of citizenship applications in backlog, but it is also the group with the lowest number of applications when compared to PR and TRV application numbers.

Share Your Thoughts

So far, the data for 2024 show fewer ITA’s being issued and a decrease in PRs being admitted, along with a very slow progress in working through backlogged applications. As we track the changes and continue to provide analysis of the changing immigration trends through the ICC Immigration Dashboard, here are two questions to ponder:

• Should alternative immigration streams be added to an already overwhelmed Express Entry system?
• Will a decrease in immigration levels have the intended impact on housing and healthcare strains, or will new challenges emerge?

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